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Just two days before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just who would win citywide, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner gained half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.