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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.