Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
