How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.